A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
