Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
